New Zealand Immigration News: November 2009

Upcoming New Zealand Immigration Seminars

We are approaching the end of 2009 and what a big year it has been. We have seminars coming up in November in South Africa, presented by Christopher Noakes. In late November and early December Iain MacLeod will be presenting seminars in Singapore and Kuala Lumpur. These will be the last round of seminars for 2009 so if you, your friends or family wish to attend, this is the last chance.

South Africa

New Zealand Economic Update

In New Zealand we appear to have moved beyond the “green shoots” stage and all the data recently released tends to point to the recession being behind us and growth returning, albeit somewhat anaemically.

The recession officially ended in the June quarter with GDP growing 0.1% and 1.3% in the third quarter. Retail sales for August were 1.1% higher than the year before, employment intentions are up, unemployment growth has eased, the housing market shows appreciating values of 8% since January and business confidence is at its highest since 1990.

That is not to say that people are not still under pressure, but the economy appears to be bouncing back somewhat more quickly and robustly than many were predicting.

Interestingly, inflation in the year ending September 2009 was 1.7% which is nearly double what Economists were predicting. The message being that there is demand building within the economy and, although the Governor of the Reserve Bank has said that he does not intend lifting wholesale interest rates until the fourth quarter of 2010, many are now predicting (and banks are building in) higher rates sooner rather than later.

The big question mark for New Zealand is whether we are going to get a “double dip recession” with the classic “W” shape. I am no trained Economist but that prospect for New Zealand cannot be ruled out.

House prices are up but that seems to be a reflection of fewer vendors putting stock into the market place; the New Zealand dollar has, like many commodity currencies, appreciated significantly against the US dollar (at the time of writing US$1 = NZ$1.30) and many are picking this to increase further given the inherent weakness in the Greenback. This is not the news that exporters who have been through an extremely tough two years wanted to hear. Interest rates also cannot stay this low for a whole lot longer if inflationary pressure is starting to build within the economy. Any increase in interest rates will inevitably drive up the value of the New Zealand dollar and that in turn will suppress export led growth.

The good news is that employers have largely ceased shedding jobs, although again it is still happening. Unemployment is currently running around 5.9% and many are now picking that contrary to earlier predictions of 8% - 8.5% it isn't likely to grow further.

What To Make Of New Zealand's Appreciating Property Values

It was residential housing that contributed to both the recent strong growth in the economy and the recession. With property values falling by between 10% and 15% over the past eighteen months and interest rates at record lows (most banks are offering floating rates of around 5.6%) are we heading for another bubble?

Net migration has been positive in recent months caused not by more migrants being allowed to enter New Zealand permanently, but by more New Zealanders returning home from overseas and fewer New Zealanders contemplating leaving permanently. This has seen net migration jump from historically quite low numbers over the past two years to many thousands. All these people need to be housed.

More people needing more houses have occurred at the same time as building consents have roughly halved. Does this mean we now have a housing shortage? There is a significant divergence of views among commentators it seems. There are those who believe that home and building has kept place with underlying demand and there is no shortage at present. While I might agree with that I would also add that underlying demand pressures could well emerge over the next six to twelve months.

On the one hand construction of new homes has been slowing over the last year, but the number of people needing to be housed is increasing. New Zealand has been experiencing relatively strong population growth (which includes net migration) with forty-seven thousand more people in New Zealand in the year ending June 2009 than in the previous year.

House prices have been rising recently which reflects fewer vendors willing to put their property on the market but as prices have started to recover, basic economics would suggest more people will release product on to the market.

With Government not cutting back on migrant numbers, it is my view that prices will probably plateau over the next two quarters or so and then we will return to property values appreciating further.

Health Testing New Zealand Migrants

Nothing gives us more grief than the huge percentage of Visa/Permit applicants who end up having decisions delayed by many weeks because their Medicals are being referred to the Department's Medical Assessors. There are some branches who are advising now that fifty percent of the Medicals they receive with any form of Visa or Permit application end up in front of a Medical Assessor. As a consequence of that the time frame for Medical Assessors to make a recommendation to Visa Officers has ballooned from three to four weeks to closer to eight weeks.

When a Work Permit, for example, cannot be granted because a client is waiting for a decision on a minor medical matter, it is cause for great tension and conflict between employer, Department, client and us. It is not a position we relish being in and not something which we can control, but something we have to deal with on a daily basis. What is worse is that the significant majority of Medicals referred to Medical Assessors end up by being deemed to have met an acceptable standard of health. It begs the question then in relation to INZ's systems why they can't exercise greater discretion in which Medicals are sent on to the Medical Assessor and those which are not.

We are also finding GPs getting caught up in this as they will often signal there is nothing significant nor abnormal in the findings of the applicant, but the Department still forwards Medicals to the Medical Assessors (with the fairly lame excuse that “they are not Doctors”). Nor are we Doctors, but we seem to be able to advise clients which Medicals and which conditions once referred will require further testing (as ordered by the MA sometime later) and which will not. We fail to understand why the Department cannot but they are putting many Work, Student and Visitor's Permit outcomes at risk by not exercising greater discretion.

Livers & BMI

While on the topic of things medical, the inconsistency of the Medical Assessors' recommendations is also extremely frustrating to us and clients. The two big issues that we deal with almost daily around here are livers “abnormal liver function” and body mass index.

I would estimate that twenty percent of the Medicals we submit to INZ has one or more family members with “abnormal liver function”. This can be brought about by half a glass of wine the night before the blood was done, regular consumption of alcohol, regular consumption of McDonalds and other fatty foods. It has got to the point now where we are advising clients to abstain from alcohol or burgers at least a week before they go for their Medical! Because of western diets, increasingly, people also have “fatty livers”. This is usually able to be sorted by a change of diet and getting off the couch. Unfortunately it takes the Immigration Medical for many of our clients to recognize that they have this issue. It is fair to say that a number of our clients are not of ideal weight, but what we try and do signal at the initial consultation and certainly when we prepare our residence instructions that people are going to confront this issue within a few months of beginning the process. We, therefore, advise all our clients very early on in the process to get this matter in hand because, as outlined above, we are finding Work Permit, Student Permit and Visitor's Permit, along with Residence Permit applications being put at risk because of the delays we have to deal with with the Medical Assessors.

There is no doubt that New Zealand demands an extremely high level of health and all clients should be advised in the months before any residence application is filed to ensure that they are looking after their physical health.

Body Mass Index is the other one which is the bane of our existence. What is quite clear is that body mass index is highly controversial as a measure of someone's health. If the Medical presented to INZ has a body mass index of greater than 35, the Medical will be referred to the Medical Assessor and may be if it reads 30. Some Medical Assessors clearly sit in the camp that BMI is a good indicator of future potential health issues whilst others are in the camp that says this is not necessarily the case. As a consequence we live daily with inconsistent recommendations coming back from Medical Assessors and Case Officers.

We have a client at the moment who has a body mass index pushing 40 and the Medical Assessor in that case has recommended the case be deferred for three months for the client to lose further weight to get the body mass index down to 35. A week before that (and not without eight months of argument) we obtained residence for a client with a body mass index of 47 who was approved based on a Medical Assessor's recommendation. The frustrating thing for us is that the decision by the Immigration Department is determined by Medical Assessors who view BMI differently.

It is interesting that at the current time every single All Black has a body mass index greater than 35 according to a recent report. It would be far fetched in the extreme to think that they are all walking heart attacks, yet applicants to New Zealand who have a BMI of greater than 35 are perceived in that way by some of the Medical Assessors.

As Advisors we often say to those who make the rules we “do not care what they are” – what we care about is that they are administered consistently and this simply does not occur especially around body mass index as an indicator of good health.

New Zealand Work Permits And Urban Myths

Many chat groups and forums are warning people about coming to New Zealand because Work Permits are not being issued and jobs are not being found. The biggest surprise for me this year has been the fact that the majority of our clients have been able to secure employment during the worst recession for fifty years and a climbing unemployment rate. There is no doubt that for many the process has been extremely frustrating and nerve racking but at the time of writing we have two clients who have been unable to secure skilled employment out of more than one hundred who have landed this year who needed a job to secure enough points to get their permanent residence.

Contrary to the chatter that goes on among forum and chat room users, Work Permits are still being granted and a properly presented application has an extremely high chance of success. There has been no directive issued by the Government of Immigration's Head Office to cut back on Work Permits, but what we are seeing is a greater emphasis on labour market testing to see if, perhaps, a local might be able to fill the position.

Christmas Office Hours

IMMagine New Zealand's office will close at midday on 23 December 2009 and will reopen on Wednesday 13 January 2010. We are signalling this now because Christmas usually arrives like a runaway freight train. It is really important to me that my staff have a good break over this time and as the Immigration Department does likewise, not a lot tends to happen between Christmas and early January. Most of you will also be on holiday I am sure. What this does mean though is that if anybody wants any documentation filed before we close because of some imposed deadline or Permit expiry, we do need to have all documentation not later than Wednesday 16 December to guarantee filing. Please diarize this or note it somewhere.

Introduction

Company House

IMMagine New Zealand has at its disposal for our clients a very comfortable two storey house (three double bedrooms, master en suite with one single bedroom) situated in the eastern suburbs; centrally located with easy access to good schools, shopping complex and motorway. The house is fully furnished; all linen supplied etc. The price of $551.20 per week is extremely good value and one would be very hard put to find such value anywhere else. All our clients have enjoyed their stay at the house. Booking the house in advance just takes off the added pressure of having to look for accommodation when you arrive in Auckland. The house can be viewed on our website.

The Shipping News - Take It Or Leave It?

If you are reading this newsletter, then you areprobably currently considering the big move Down Under. One of the many realities facing migrants is the question of what to do with your home full of furniture and memories. Ship the whole lot, scale down and take only the important bits, or leave the whole lot and start over in New Zealand?

The good news is that it is now more economical to move your possessions to New Zealand than it has been for a long time. Due to the world economic downturn in shipping volumes and the subsequent competition for cargo, shipping lines are now offering (hard-bargaining) removal companies ocean freight rates that have not beenseen foryears. No doubt, there will be a "correction" in rates as soon as shipping volumes pick up again, but for the short term at least, there has never been a better time to pack & ship everything, including the kitchen sink.

For example, a standard 6 metre/20ft container (for an average 3 bedroom home load) from Cape Town to Auckland or Wellington is currently costing +- SAR 30 000; anda 12 metre/40ft container (for a larger home load) is currently costing +- SAR 48 - R50 000.

That is +- NZ$ 5500 and NZ$ 8500 respectively, excluding optional transit insurance.

When compared to the alternative of selling up and replacing household goods overseas (see for example http://www.designproduction.co.nz/and

http://www.nzs.com/business/shopping/homeware/furniture/) one soon realises that as expensive as moving may be, the alternative is even more costly.

The extra value added in biting the bullet and shipping one's household goods becomes even more apparent when considering the comfort derived from being surrounded by familiar things in an unfamiliar environment, especially true for children settling in a new country.

Naturally one's financial situation will ultimately determine what a migrant can afford to ship, but hopefully the factors mentioned here will make that bitter pill just a little easier to swallow.

Contributed by Adrian Schultz, Director of EconoFreight International Movers, Cape Town, RSA. For queries or quotations please feel free to contact Adrian at adrian@econofreight.co.za or call (from SA) 0861-MOVING (668464)

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