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Upcoming New Zealand Immigration Seminars |
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Singapore
Seminar: Saturday 29 May at 11.00 a.m. at the Orchard Hotel, 442 Orchard Road
Consultations: 30, 31 May 1, 2, 3, 4 June at the Orchard Hotel. Cost applies.
Malaysia - Kuala Lumpur
Seminar: Saturday 5 June at 11.00 a.m. at the KL Convention Centre
Consultations: 5, 6, 7, 8, 9 at the Hotel Hilton, 3 Jalan Stesen Sentral.
Cost applies.
Our July trip will also include Penang for the first time so check our website as you will be able to register online shortly for this free seminar.
South Africa
Johannesburg:
Seminar: Wednesday 21 July at 7.00 p.m. at the Michelangelo Hotel, Nelson Mandela Square, West Street, Sandown.
Consultations: 20, 21, 22, 23, 24 & 25 July at the Michelangelo Hotel.
Cost applies.
Cape Town:
Seminar: Tuesday 11 May 7.00 p.m. at the Commodore Hotel, Portswood Road, V & A Waterfront
Consultations: 14, 15, 16 May at the Commodore Hotel. Cost applies.
Durban:
Seminar: Monday 17 May at 7.00 p.m. at the Riverside Hotel, 10 Northway Drive, Durban North
Consultations: 18, 19, 20 May at the Endless Horizons Hotel 108 Umhlanga Rocks Drive, Durban North.
Cost applies.
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Immigration Seminar Demand |
We are seeing increasing demand out of South Africa to attend the seminars and May 1 seminar in Singapore was oversubscribed and fully booked. You are probably a bit like me and when you see things advertised which have statements like “registration is essential” you may think it is a cheap ploy to spur you to action. We have never adopted that tactic but the reality is in Singapore and Johannesburg, in particular, seminar numbers have been increasing to the point where we have had to put the “full” sign up for Johannesburg two weeks before the event and ten days out for Singapore.
If then you or friends have tried to register for those seminars but had not been able to, it will mean waiting another four to six weeks under normal circumstances to attend the next one.
What is driving seminar demand?
It is quite clear in South Africa that we can put it down to three things:
1. Julius Malema – head of the ANC Youth League and his mad dog utterances.
2. Confidence returning to global housing markets meaning our clients can free up cash to move.
3. Improvement in the New Zealand economy making job prospects greater.
Although South Africans think we sponsor Julius Malema (now there is a thought!) it did occur to me having been a keen observer of South African politics and economic policy for the past twenty years that when Nelson Mandela was President everyone was worried about who would follow him. Along came the rather uninspiring academic Thabo Mbeki who nobody thought would ever be viewed in the same light as Nelson Mandela. He wasn't. Hard on his heels, however, came the colourful Jacob Zuma who as we all know has been accused and charged of all sorts of crimes from rape to corruption. Suddenly Thabo Mbeki looked quite good. And of course coming up behind Zuma is mad dog Malema who suddenly makes even the colourful Jacob Zuma seem somewhat harmless.
I have often been asked as an outsider with an intimate understanding of South Africa if I believe it will end up like Zimbabwe. To be quite honest I have always viewed it as a possibility given the way politics seems to work in Africa, but this year with the rise and rise of Julius Malema and talk he could be the next President, I now have to say it is a probability. While Malema is great for the labour markets of Australia, New Zealand, Canada and the UK, I generally don't believe higher office for him will do anything for the future of South Africa.
I genuinely believed that the Government would rein him in at least until the Football World Cup was over and then let him loose once again. I rather suspect, however, that Malema being the focus of local and international media attention probably takes the pressure off the current President and makes him appear positively statesman-like alongside Malema. Zuma must love it).
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New Zealand: Economic Update |
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In its latest monetary policy statement delivered a few days ago the Governor of the Reserve Bank of New Zealand left overnight cash rates (wholesale interest rates) unchanged at its historic low of 2.5%. The economic recovery he is satisfied is “broad based” and predictions are of GDP growth of around 3% over the next twelve months and slightly higher in the year following that.
The Governor has also been signalling for some months that he expects to begin tightening monetary policy in as little as the next two months, has now given himself some “wriggle room” by dropping references (which is unusual for Central Bank Governors) from “mid year” to the near future.
What is also interesting is that over the past fifteen years the Governor's ability to influence spending behaviour in New Zealand has been somewhat limited because the majority of mortgage holders have had fixed interest loans over a period of one, two , three and as much as five years. That has changed since the global financial crisis with retail floating interest rates significantly lower than longer term rates as a direct consequence of the cost of borrowing that longer term money overseas. Now the majority of New Zealanders have floating mortgage rates (of between 5.6% and 6.9%) and any increase in those rates will see spending patterns impacted more quickly than in the overheated economy we had leading up to the recession of 2008/2009.
At the moment those with fixed mortgages of twelve months are paying closer to 8%-8.5%.
Unemployment figures will be released within the next four weeks. Most people are picking little change to the current 7.3%. What is very interesting for us, however, is to see since Christmas the speed with which our migrant clients are getting work (whether they have their permanent residence, Work to Residence Visas or neither, but need the job to advance their residence claims). Through 2009 the average time it was taking clients to get work was ten to fourteen weeks. That appears to have fallen across most sectors and most clients now are finding work within four to eight weeks.
I am often asked what I think will happen in terms of employment opportunities over the next year. What I think will happen is that the unemployment rate will come down reasonably slowly. There are a number of reasons for this, but perhaps the most important is that during the recession of 2008/2009, which was the most serious we have had in over two decades, many companies held on to skilled staff because they recognized that the skill shortages between 2002 and 2007 had become so acute that if the recession was reasonably short lived they did not want to be scrambling to find skilled employees again when the recession was over. The recession of 2008/2009, however, was five quarters long which is about three quarters longer than any recession in living memory. In many cases hours were cut back rather than laying people off and that means there is some capacity within the economy for people to increase their hours of work before employers will be looking to employ new staff members.
On the supply side of the equation, however, the fact that we operate a common labour market with Australia does have a big influence on what happens to our unemployment rate. During 2008 and 2009 many New Zealanders were returning from Australia having been laid off (especially anyone directly or indirectly associated with the mining industry). In the December Quarter (2009) 16,000 more people were registered as unemployed in New Zealand, but only 2,000 jobs were shed. This was a direct reflection of numbers of New Zealanders returning home, in particular from Australia and fewer younger New Zealanders heading overseas (why go to London for your OE if you don't think you will get a job?).
I see that trend reversing this year. There is no doubt that Australia has weathered the global recession better than most and it also helped that the Rudd Government gave Australians just before Christmas $42 billion of their own money to go and spend (which they did – many of them by travelling to New Zealand as tourists!). Australian unemployment is around 5.3% and of course the Chinese economy is now going great guns again. This means over the next few months increasing numbers of New Zealanders will return to Australia and for every one of them who leaves New Zealand creates one job for either a local or a migrant.
It is interesting to note also that salaries are on the increase and for skilled workers pay rates which were largely frozen during 2008/2009 have begun increasing again at a rate higher than inflation (around 1.5%).This would tend to indicate not only increased economic activity, but employers rewarding staff for the sacrifices made during the recession.
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A Long Hot Summer |
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Autumn has finally arrived in Auckland with humidity levels falling, daily temperatures in the low 20 degrees Celsius and overnight temperatures of around 14 degrees. We were starting to wonder if summer would ever end. It really has been the most magnificent five months with very little rain. Auckland has received about 10 percent of its normal rainfall through January, February and March (and we don't get a lot of rain in normal years over summer). Generally April is characterized by the occasional cold snap and increasing rain, but that simply has not happened this month.
And that is causing a lot of farmers considerable worry and economic concern. From the Waikato all the way through to Northland, drought conditions were declared some time ago. Whole towns are running out of water and many dairy farmers, in particular, are drying off their stock. This is the second drought in twenty-four months to hit these regions and there is no doubt there is going to be an economic impact as a consequence. They say in Northland, alone, (north of Auckland) farm gate receipts will be at least NZ$300 million down on this time last year. Compensating farmers somewhat is a much higher dairy payout as commodity prices around the world continue to improve.
Parts of Central Otago in the South Island and the East Coast of the North Island are also now in drought and with winter arriving, especially in the South Island, there will now not be any significant grass growth before spring and that is going to lead to further problems for the farmers towards the end of this year.
But one man's drought is another man's perfect golfing weather and as an urban Aucklander I have to say I quite like it!
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New Zealand Immigration Update |
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These are interesting times. I had lunch a few weeks ago with the new Deputy Secretary of the Immigration Department (basically the guy who runs the show) and we had a very frank discussion about the operation that he leads. He discussed with me and another senior industry colleague his 100 day action plan which first begins with trying to get his head around the way the Immigration Department operates. It is fair to say that no-one who deals with the Immigration Department on a daily basis pretends to understand it.
That lunch gave me a chance to discuss with him what is going on in the Shanghai and Beijing Branches in particular. Our Singaporean, Malaysian and Philippine clients will understand that if they are still living at home all their residence cases are processed by these two branches which appear to be either ignorant of immigration policy, operate their own immigration policy and, at best, could be said to do a completely lousy job. I have written previously in these newsletters and blogged about applicants who have sufficient points under the Skilled Migrant Category to qualify for New Zealand in particular from Malaysia, Singapore and the Philippines who have handled the process themselves. They have been selected from the Pool, they have been invited to apply for permanent residence (on the grounds that a prima facie case to New Zealand residence exists) their cases scrutinized, the paper work they present verified, settlement interview carried out to be followed with the news that their application has been declined. You may recall that the aim and intent of this policy for those who don't have job offers, but sufficient points is to, under normal circumstances, either grant them permanent residence outright or a Work to Residence Visa (essentially an Open Work Visa) which gives them the thick end of twelve months to come to New Zealand, find skilled employment having tested themselves again the local labour market. To my horror I started to come across cases (none of our own clients I would add) who were being declined following the settlement interview despite in my (professional and licensed) opinion meeting all the criteria and, in my view, being excellent potential migrants.
We have intervened in three cases and this week I was very pleased having sought intervention from the highest levels that one of the cases was effectively overturned. The client who was about to be declined residence and denied the chance to test himself against the New Zealand labour market despite being on the Long Term Skill Shortage List and working in an occupation deemed by the New Zealand Government (!) to be in acute and on-going demand, a Work to Residence Visa. He now has the chance to come here in the next few months, find skilled employment and realize his dream.
The second case which has many similarities to the one described above, is currently sitting in front of the Minister. We did not get to that client before INZ declined him and despite my submissions and pleas to everyone from the Branch Manager to the Group Operations Manager of INZ, no-one was particularly interested at looking at this case and making any moral or meaningful decisions about reopening it. The client was simply told to take his chances under appeal (something not carried out by the Immigration Department themselves) but by then he had decided that the New Zealand Government did not want him in New Zealand and he decided not to spend further money perusing it. IMMagine New Zealand has different plans for him and that case is sitting in front of a Ministerial Resolutions Group and I understand that the Deputy Secretary of the Department is also taking a personal interest in the case. We are demanding nothing less than the Department being directed to give him a Work to Residence Visa so he can then come to New Zealand, find work and realize his dream.
The third case we also believe will have a successful outcome, but discussions are on-going with the Department.
What these three cases illustrate is not only that there are competency issues within the Department, but that each processing region (and there are effectively four across the globe) operate their own fiefdom and do things in their own way. Although Branch and regional management regularly meet it is incomprehensible to those of us who work in the industry that each region seems to operate in isolation from the rest. All credit to the new Deputy Secretary whose goal is to have “accurate and consistent” decision making. I wish him all the very best because if he can do it, he will be the first Deputy Secretary in the two decades that I have been working with the Department who has been able to.
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Future Role Of Licensed Immigration Advisers |
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From 4 May 2010 nobody on Planet Earth is able to give immigration advice to anybody who is not licensed with the New Zealand Government or exempt from being licensed. At the current time there are approximately three hundred licensed advisers on the planet. It is interesting that the Immigration Advisers Authority now believes very few non New Zealand based Advisers will seek licences. This, I suspect, is because most don't specialize in New Zealand but dabble in a number of different countries. Already we have seen the IAA take steps to shut down non licensed advisers in New Zealand and it will be interesting to see how they are able to police non licensed advisers who are giving immigration advice who are not in New Zealand.
As someone who was against licensing simply because IMMagine New Zealand had built its reputation on delivering value and treating its clients as we would like to be treated if the roles were reversed. I have to say, however, as someone who still believes in free markets the global events of the last two years has led me to believe that some form of regulation may in fact be useful. Ironically I am yet to be convinced that forcing Advisers to be licensed will prevent the rip offs that we have seen in recent years in markets like South Africa, in particular, but having that licence does appear to lend some credibility to our marketing efforts around the world.
The industry has made the very strong suggestion to the Government and the Immigration Department leadership that Licensed Advisers be given their own processing branch. Senior leadership inside the INZ believes there has to be some “pay back” for those of us who have jumped through the Government's licensing hoops, demonstrated our competence and ethics and who add a lot of value both to migrants and Immigration Officers. Senior leadership inside INZ and the industry also believe that as Licensed Advisers we are able to bring significant productivity and efficiency gains to the Immigration Department itself. That is simply because we know what we are doing; there is a degree of mutual respect and our applications tend to be fully and correctly documented at the time of lodging, thus requiring less to-ing and fro-ing between applicant and Department. It seems around forty percent of all applications filed with the Immigration Department come from Advisers and although I don't believe the Deputy Secretary will be successful in uniting all Immigration Officers in delivering a consistent service, he can very quickly help those people who have chosen to use professional Licensed Advisers by giving us our own branch.
There are precedents for this in New Zealand. For example the Tax Department has a Division with which Tax Agents deal directly. There is a clear understanding within that Government Department that Chartered Accountants and Accountant professionals should be dealt with differently to those trying to negotiate the process themselves.
We look forward to developments in this regard as there is no doubt it is going to be to the advantage of those people who have chosen to invest in a professional Licensed Adviser.
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Break For The World Cup |
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We normally come to South Africa every four to five weeks but after our seminars in early/ mid May we will not returning to the Republic until mid July. What has been amazing to us is how many hotels that we have supported and stayed in and given seminars at over a number of years that have tried to extort (is the only word I can think of) significantly higher room rates and venue rates (are all the English football supporters going to be going to seminars while they are in South Africa watching their team play?). I have read the reports about over priced hotel rooms and so on in South Africa and the South African Hospitality Association denying that the practice was wide spread. We would beg to differ. Room rates in our normal hotels in Johannesburg, Cape Town and Durban were exorbitantly more expensive during the World Cup than normal. The next round of seminars in South Africa will be toward the tail end of the World Cup when most supporters we assume will have departed along with their teams, but even then it took several strongly worded emails to some of these hotels reminding them that whilst the World Cup is a wonderful event it is also a one-off. Businesses like ours that have been supporting them for years will continue to do so for years if we feel valued.
We will also be adding Pretoria to our trips in July and thereafter. Historically a lot of our clients have come from Pretoria and having travelled the freeways between Pretoria and Johannesburg on my last trip in March and April I was quickly convinced that although the two cities are very close geographically, the constant road works and traffic jams makes it very difficult for a lot of the people from that part of Gauteng to get to the Johannesburg seminars and consultations. So we have decided to come to you!
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