Posts with tag: pass marks

Letters from the Southern Man

Migrating is more than just filling in forms and submitting paperwork, its a complex process that will test even the most resilient of people. 

Understanding New Zealand is paramount to your immigration survival and to give you a realistic view of the country, its people and how we see the world, read our weekly Southern Man blogs. Often humorous, sometimes challenging, but always food for thought.

Four Golden Rules Sorely Tested

 

I think I have in the past shared with you my four golden rules for surviving the immigration process with some of your mental faculties left intact:

1. Assume nothing about your eligibility
2. Suspend logic – there is little to be found in the visa process
3. There’s a good chance when you think you understand the rules your Visa will be processed by an immigration officer who does not understand the rules
4. Don’t believe everything you read on the Immigration Department’s website

If this sounds a little uncharitable to the Department become a client of ours and you will very soon see what I mean.

Only this week I can give you good examples of all four rules in action.

Last week I wrote of the little drama over claims coming from the Christchurch Branch Work Visa Manager that he and his colleagues were going to ‘get tough on those entering New Zealand as visitors and subsequently applying for Work Visas’. This was obviously a real concern because entering New Zealand as a visitor with a view to exploring the country and checking it out (including employment opportunities) as a visitor is entirely lawful. If someone decides they like it, they find a job and wish to apply for a Work Visa that is not only entirely lawful but the way the labour market works. The Work Visa Manager in Christchurch expressed his surprise that employers and recruiters demanded to interview applicants in person and in New Zealand.

I asked his boss, the Branch Manager, to both explain what her position on those comments were and to consider granting my client a short term Work Visa as an exception while we resolved a relatively minor health issue that was holding things up.

If you recall both the case officer and the Work Visa Manager had flatly refused to consider this simple request.

To her credit she agreed and the client is now working with a 12 month work visa granted as an exception.

She has also in a nice sort of way put her employee back in his box by confirming my understanding of the law is accurate.

Which is good news for the city of Christchurch because if they wish to avoid living in the ruins of their downtown for all eternity this office is going to need to take a sensible and pragmatic approach to the conflicts that exist across Visitor, Work and Residence Visa policies and take a ’big picture’ approach to those, like my client, who travel to New Zealand as visitors, establish they are employable, establish this is a country they wish to settle in, secure work and apply for work visas followed, quite legitimately, by Residence Visas.

The Government could of course assist the officers in their task quite simply.

If a person has been selected from the skilled migrant pool with a job offer and they have been invited to apply for residence, the prima facie claim to that residence has been established. While we know that guarantees nothing in terms of Residence Visa outcomes and significant numbers of people who are invited to apply for residence are subsequently declined (often through no fault of their own) surely the creation of a temporary class of Work Visa for these people does not threaten the integrity of the immigration process?

To do so of course would be a clear breach of Golden rule # 2……

I have also been analysing some statistics on skilled migrant approval, decline and work to residence rates for INZ London, Beijing and Shanghai branches as part of our ongoing monitoring of decisions in those markets.

Those of you that have been reading this blog for a while will know that skilled migrant decline rates coming out of China two years ago were significant and hovered around 80% in Shanghai and Beijing for some time. After months of work and investigation we were able to force change on the Chinese branches which has led to the decline rates plummeting for all applicants. Although none of our cases were being declined we were being asked constantly to help those that had been declined who used other agents or had tried negotiating the process themselves.

In the latest statistics Work To Residence (WTR) Visa decisions still dominate with Shanghai granting around 80% of all Skilled Migration applicants the WTR visa and Beijing coming in just behind at 75%. Without tempting fate (or immigration officers) I can confirm that all of our clients since these officers were given ‘refresher training’ in the policy some 18 or so months ago have been granted Residence Visas following their interviews without leaving home.

Officers in those two Chinese branches continue to appear to ask them after the interview – ‘Is there any compelling reason why I should grant this family a Residence Visa?’ when the question policy actually asks is ‘Is there any compelling reason why I should not grant this family Residence Visas?”

While the fact that decline rates have plummeted is a vast improvement it is clear the de facto position of these two branches is to think that a Work Visa is the most appropriate outcome for applicants from their ‘catchment’. They expect virtually everyone they want to approve residence to get on planes, fly to New Zealand, find employment and then secure their residence.

When their colleagues in London continue to grant Residence Visas to the significant majority (upwards of 80%) of applicants from their markets of Europe, Africa, North and South America one can only ask why? What is the difference between Brazilian, German, French and Swiss applicants all of whom have English as a second language (and processed in London) and a Singaporean, Filipino and Malaysian most of whom have English as a first language (processed in China)?

Are Germans more employable in New Zealand than Singaporeans? Not in my experience. Are French more employable than Malaysians? Not in my experience.

So you see what I mean about my four golden rules – so much depends not on what category you apply under, whether that be temporary Work Visa or skilled migrant Residence Visa – it is where your visa is processed that is the single biggest indicator of the outcome on your application.

And that is quite wrong.

Until next week.

Southern Man - Iain MacLeod

 

The Price of Inconsistent Decision Making

I was mildly irritated recently to read the latest glossy release from the Immigration Department called ‘Vision2015’.

Sent out to all and sundry (I guess in the parlance, ‘stakeholders’) it was pages and pages of, well, as far as I could tell, nothing but a commitment to make consistent decisions.

Which is of course a frank admission that they don’t.

As I somewhat embarrassingly sit here in Singapore this week spending hour after hour outlining to potential clients that the average skilled migrant will spend between NZ$3000 and NZ$4500 on Visa fees and Government charges alone to secure their Residence Visas I wonder how much of those exorbitant costs fund this type of utterly meaningless publication.

I know that it is trendy these days even for Government Departments to employ expensive PR people and come up with ‘visions’ but, when your reason to exist is to control entry at the border and to assess and issue visas, why on earth do you need to have a vision or issue an expensive glossy publication?

Surely you have one reason for existing if you are the Immigration Department – to make accurate and timely visa decisions. That’s all the ‘vision’ you need isn’t it?

And we know they aren’t much chop at that.

The perennial frustration we have as Advisers is the constantly moving goalposts – the seeming inability (or unwillingness) of Immigration officers to learn their own rules or to implement them consistently. It can’t be that hard – they aren’t putting anyone on the moon. Immigration policy and process is not rocket science.

A perfect example is a case I am arguing with Christchurch INZ over.

In a nutshell, the situation I have is a highly skilled client who has come to New Zealand as a visitor and secured a Management level position; we filed his Expression of Interest in Residence as he now has enough points to get residence; he was selected and Invited to Apply for Residence and we have recently filed a Work Visa so he can take up that job while the Department spend the thick end of year processing his residence visa.

The one fly in the ointment (and it is incredibly common) is that his immigration medical lab tests showed some readings that fell outside of the ‘normal range’. Marginally, but outside, and like 50% of all medical certificates that accompany all visa class applications his medical was referred to a Department Doctor for an opinion. That process, thanks to the sheer volume, takes around 4 - 6 weeks to resolve and can mean the difference between getting a Work Visa or not – as employers are only so willing to wait for Work Visas to be issued.

The head of the Temporary Visa team in Christchurch has flatly refused to consider granting a short term Work Visa as an exception to policy while their Doctors make some decision. This is something other branches will consider on a case by case basis and, indeed, Christchurch branch has done for us previously.

The officer said that ‘We are taking a tougher line on those who enter New Zealand as visitors and subsequently lodge Work Visa applications.’

I know that potential clients freak out at such talk and the chat rooms and forums are always abuzz with this rumour that you are not allowed to enter New Zealand to look for work. Don’t get caught with a CV in your suitcase on arrival. Don’t bring a suit if you are on holiday, etc.

I always thought this rubbish came from the uninformed immigration experts that frequent these chat groups. Now I am not so sure. Perhaps it is the employees of the Immigration Department themselves who are responsible for this tripe.

Such a threat to people legitimately in the country as visitors who legitimately secure jobs and who then legitimately apply for Work Visas to remain is out of line with virtually every other branch of this Department if that statement is taken at face value.

This Manager and the initial case officer both told me that the client should have applied for a Work Visa before he came to New Zealand. This appears to suggest they do not understand that you can’t get the Visa without the job.  Even more bizarrely when I explained to this officer that recruiters and employers demand to meet the applicants in New Zealand before offering positions for all sorts of reasons – he expressed his surprise.

I always thought Christchurch was on planet Earth but I confess I am less sure after this exchange.

If he is serious and we take his comment at face value it has enormous implications – simply put – migrants who need jobs to qualify for Residence will stop coming and looking.  And with that the Government’s Skilled Migrant Residence Programme will collapse in no time at all.

What is gobsmacking about that is that we are talking about Christchurch – a city that we are told will need between 30,000 and 35,000 skilled workers by this time next year to help them rebuild their city. My client is highly skilled, has enough points for his Residence Visa, has been invited to apply for that residency but also has a job to start – we suggested a solution other branches are willing to offer, but Christchurch turned us down flat.

While I accept INZ needed to refer his medical certificate to their own Doctor to be met with a blanket and abrupt refusal to contemplate a short term Work Visa solution while this process plays out beggared belief. Especially when so many other branches will do so.

The law is pretty clear – if you have a job offer in your back pocket and try entering New Zealand as a visitor then you have crossed the line – such people must travel to New Zealand on Work Visas or risk being turned around at the airport.

However, people who travel to New Zealand as visitors are quite legally able to do so to explore the country, establish how employable they might be, to have interviews with employers, check out schools for their kids, assess the cost of living and general living conditions and if they are offered a job to lawfully apply to change their status to that of Work Visa holders.

The sorry fact is that Visitor Visa, Work Visa and Residence Visa policies conflict with one another and they exist in isolation with their own aims, intents and criteria. Thankfully, enough immigration officers will take a sensible, pragmatic and strategic view and appreciate that Visitor and Work Visa classes can undermine the aims and intents of residence policy and react with sensible short term solutions that do not affect the greater integrity of the Immigration Act.  It is fair to say that if these three Visa classes were all interpreted strictly (not withstanding they are open to interpretation at some level) then there would be no Skilled Migrant Residence Programme.

If Christchurch ‘wants to get tough’ on people who are applying to change their status from Visitor to Work Visas I am afraid that I will be advising all my clients to steer clear of the South Island  and bring their skills north where some branches offer a more pragmatic ‘big picture’ service to clients and Advisers. 

The inconsistent thinking and implementation of this Department has not changed in my 23 years and with the culture so entrenched in so many branches I cannot see that it will ever change.

Perhaps a few copies of the glossy “Vision2015” brochure might be dropped on a few case officers’ desks in Christchurch. And maybe they might even be encouraged to read it. They might then see the ‘big picture’ and implement the same interpretations of policy as many of their colleagues elsewhere leading to happier employers and migrants.

I binned mine. Not worth the (glossy) paper it was written on.

Until next week

Southern Man - Iain MacLeod

Engineers, Websites and Seminars...

 

Back behind the desk as summer continues its balmy journey out my window. No more fresh sea breezes or sun on the face, only the gentle, occasional waft of bus exhaust fumes seeping in my window from Queen Street, the only light that provided by fluorescent tubes and the shriek of seabirds replaced by the wail of sirens and parping horns. And people everywhere.

I would almost add, how depressing - but it isn’t. I have been away and enjoying sun, sea, surf, friends and family for the past three weeks but the truth is I took all my clients with me. What I love about living in the 21st century is being able to stay in touch with my team in the office (or wherever they were during their holidays) and clients from the comfort of a lounger on the deck up north at my beach house. Thanks to Mr Jobs and the good folk at Apple.

We rounded off the holiday with another fantastic coastal walk last week from Sandy Bay to Whananki (Google Earth it and add it to your things to do when you can).  A big cloudless sky overhead, a warm day saw eight of us wandering a gravel service road through steep rugged coastal farmland for about 7kms. Wonderful but that is a story for another Southern Man Letter.

There are three things on my mind this week that I want to share with you.

Our new websites

Late last week we finally launched our new websites here and in Australia. It has taken six months of slog to get the new sites designed, built, tested and up and running. We have tried to simplify its navigation, provide better more relevant content, offer better links to other service providers that are useful to those of you migrating or thinking of doing so and generally upgrading the experience.

To visit Immagine Australia's website, click here >>

I encourage you to check it out.

 

Seminars

I am also heading back to South Africa in ten days and will be presenting seminars in Johannesburg (6 February), Durban (13 February) and Cape Town (16 February). Its my first trip back to South Africa since September so if you have friends or family that are seriously considering a move here (or Australia) I urge them to attend. The year has begun with a bit of a hiss and a roar out of South Africa and I know I am in for a busy old time. Registrations are open and filling.

My colleague Paul Janssen will also be presenting seminars in Singapore (25 February) and Malaysia (3 March).

To register go to our Seminar Registration page on the website.

 

Policy changes – Engineers and IT

Last but by no means least the Government has changed some Skilled Migrant policy that has direct implications for Engineers and IT professionals.

On 5 December the Government released changes to the Long Term Skills Shortage List which has made entry without jobs potentially easier (or should I say less complicated?) for Engineers of most flavours along with many IT professionals. 

It isn’t an open door or anything like that but until 5 December the vast majority of Engineers required offers of skilled employment to gain entry. This wasn’t because that was the Government’s plan, it was because as usual the policy was written in such a stupid way which denied case officers the ability to award bonus points to many Engineers for their degrees or work experience. These days with the cuts to skilled migrant numbers these bonus points, especially for work experience, are for most migrants a virtual pre-requisite for gaining entry without having a job offer first.

So the new policy was released. Unfortunately, but not unexpectedly, to those of us who work in this field once again it was worded in such a way that it was not only open to interpretation as to what criteria needed to be met to get the points but also it implied that only those with Engineering degrees with majors in Electrical and Electronic and Technology could be awarded the points. We felt that surely the authors of the policy meant ‘or’ and not ‘and’.

In 23 years I have met many hundreds of Engineers but I can with hand on heart say I have never met one with all three majors.

So we got on the phone to our senior contacts in INZ Wellington and asked them what was going on. Emails flew and a meeting with us took place before Christmas. We explained what we saw as the problems and why the policy as released simply would not work.

We asked whether instead of requiring all three majors to get the bonus points perhaps the policy makers meant to type ‘or’ in between them rather than ‘and’.

Six weeks later and we have within the past few days finally been advised that indeed Engineers need, among other things, to have a major in only one of the three disciplines and not all three.

Furthermore those that have Engineering degrees from Washington Accord countries that pre-date either the Accord itself (signed in 1989) or whose country joined the Accord after they got their degree can now be awarded bonus points. Quite sensible.

Furthermore Electrical, Electronic and other Engineers can be awarded these bonus points if NZQA assesses the qualifications as being comparable to NZ Bachelor degrees, Master degrees or PhDs whether or not they come from a country that is a signatory to the Washington Accord.

This might not sound like much of a change but if you are qualified in IT or Engineering it is seismic.

This creates opportunities for Engineers from non Washington Accord countries that have not previously existed. It creates opportunities for Engineers from countries who got their degrees before their country signed up to the Accord. It creates opportunities for Engineers who have made a career in IT and IT graduates who have followed careers in Engineering. None of this was ordinarily possible before.

If there is a potential fly in the ointment it might be that the Department has gone from allowing a trickle of water through the dam to opening the floodgates. If they get too many Engineers then of course they can always shut down the flow.

So the simple message to all IT graduates with degrees and Engineers with degrees is to make contact with us, let us assess (or reassess) your eligibility because you might find you can now qualify for Residence Visas of New Zealand without needing the job offer first.

Until next week

Iain MacLeod - Southern Man

Immigration changes and review...

As the end of the year bears down on us like a runaway freight train and I ponder the holiday season ahead it is worthwhile reviewing some of the changes to immigration policy and processes that have taken place this year.

Those of you that have followed our strong and sustained efforts to effect change in Immigration New Zealand (INZ) Beijing and Shanghai offices will be interested to know that Skilled Migrant decline rates this year:

• have fallen in Beijing from roughly 85% of all applications filed a little over a year ago to 35% today which brings that office pretty much in line with global INZ averages; and

• have decreased in Shanghai from roughly 85 % a little over a year ago to 50% today. That number is still too high and it is hard to understand with new management in place in both offices why this office has persistently high decline rates totally out of step with the rest of the world; and

• for all our clients through those two offices remains zero. In fact it is better than that – as far as I am aware every client, bar one,  in 2011 has been granted a Residence Visa following their settlement interview, one were granted Work to Residence Visas and none were declined. This reinforces the view that if you know what you are doing in this environment and don’t mind investing in  services like ours there is no reason for your application to be declined.

On 5 December new Long Term Skills Shortage List criteria have opened the floodgates to Engineers of many disciplines. Up until last week most Engineers needed job offers to qualify for residence of New Zealand. 

To avoid the need to get jobs, most Engineers had to gain bonus points for qualifications or work experience but the policy made this difficult for most as it was incredibly prescriptive and restrictive. The policy limited bonus points only to those Engineers who had a degree comparable to a New Zealand degree and whose degree was issued by a Washington Accord Signatory country (and only from the date the Accord was established). This meant those bonus points were very hard to get.

The new rules will allow far more Engineers to potentially qualify for Residence Visas without having job offers first which, as we all know, is like being helicoptered half way up Mount Everest rather than being made to climb it one step at a time from the bottom.

If you are an Engineer who holds a Bachelor’s Degree we urge you to get (back) in touch with us – your Christmas might have just come early.

However the party might be short lived given these lists are reviewed every six months and in a meeting with senior Government Officials earlier this week we did warn them that in our view they have gone from the sublime to the ridiculous and this change really opens the floodgates. 

Their response was just as we expected ‘Well, we can always take the occupation off the List of course…..’. 

Therefore there is a window of opportunity here that might not remain open for long. So this is a call to action for all those Engineers who might fancy moving here……

 

In other changes the criteria for ICT Specialists has changed but in discussing this with the INZ Officials we pointed out their changes were practically meaningless because of the way the new policy is worded. I won’t bore you with the detail but we are talking about the use of the word ‘and’ when they say “they think” they meant ‘or’.

How important it is to get this right because the policy as it is currently written will have zero impact when it was designed to open the game up a bit in particular for Telecommunications and Communications Engineers.

Change the word ‘and’ to ‘or’ and the outcomes will be very very different.

In the meantime however immigration officers and advisers can only base decisions and advice on the policy as it is written not as it was meant to be written. So right now it is no easier to claim and be awarded those bonus points but it may be soon. Watch this space.

We also raised the issue with INZ about English language. As many of you will know my colleagues and I have been undergoing in-depth training on Australian General Skills Policy by my business partner and great friend Myer Lipschitz who runs our Melbourne office. It seems logical to have a working knowledge of the policy and experts at our fingertips when the New Zealand Government has made it so hard to get in here and given it is often far easier to get PR of Australia.

One clear advantage of the Australian policy over ours is that applicants can score points for their level of English language. Certain applicants from particular countries are exempt from mandatory English testing so long as they are citizens of and ordinarily live in that country. If they need more points to qualify they can sit the IELTS and are rewarded for it – the better the English the higher their score and the ‘easier’ it is to meet the current pass marks.

We don’t operate like that but we should and we have suggested Immigration New Zealand look to  adopt something similar.

The reason for this is clear – there is no greater factor influencing a migrant’s ability to secure meaningful employment at the level they want and our policy settings seek than English language. The better, more fluent, less accented your English the more attractive you are to a New Zealand employer.

This would allow for better settlement outcomes through employment and we have urged the officials to take this message back to Wellington. 

It has also been fascinating to learn through Myer how for some clients who might need a job offer to qualify for New Zealand can in fact get PR here using Australia as the back door – and without a job.

This is because Australia is less concerned about jobs before dishing out PR Visas. In fact there are many clients that we can get into Australia without their leaving home. 

Which is brilliant because if they really wish to settle here in New Zealand all they have to do is travel through Australia on their way to NZ; activate the Australian Residence Visa automatically at the Australian airport on arrival, get on the next plane and be granted a Residence Visa of New Zealand automatically on arrival here. And we are done – hey presto! New Zealand PR.

Australia has become the welcome doormat to paradise!

Delicious!

If then we have assessed you as not qualifying for New Zealand without a job offer but you wish to explore using Australia as the welcome doormat and back door to New Zealand let us know and we can assess the possibilities. This pathway won’t suit everyone but if it works, is less risky and gets you here without having to actually live in Australia it might be worth some serious consideration.

With this the second to last Southern Man letter before I head to the beach house and spend a few weeks fishing, planting some more native trees and drinking (in some unhealthy quantity) great NZ, South African – just arrived by boat - along with Australian wine, sleeping in, swimming in the warm Pacific Ocean, barbequing in my new fire pit and lying on the beach under that quintessentially New Zealand of trees, the Pohutukawa, I look back on what has been another crazy year. And crazy it seems to have been.

Crazy economy

Crazy Earthquakes down south

Crazy bureaucrats

Crazy Europe

Crazy America

Crazy Julius Malema

Here at Immagine we are finishing on a very busy note which augurs well for next year. As we all take a bit of a break and reflect on our lives and the futures of our children where ever we may live, the uncertain economic times in which we exist, the seeming never ending pressures to deliver economic comfort to our family, being slaves to the capitalist machine, doing our best to keep our heads above the stormy economic seas economically, I hope gives us an opportunity to pause and think hard about what sort of future we really want for ourselves and our family.

Notwithstanding the difficult journey that migration presents, New Zealand really does present something of an oasis of sanity in a world seemingly mad and getting madder by the month.

As we always say, ‘NZ ain’t perfect’ but there are few places better in the world to raise a family than right here.

Until next week

Iain MacLeod -Southern Man

Call Centre or Comedy Channel?

If I told you what you are about to read is true and not a transcript from something seen on the Comedy Channel, you probably wouldn't believe me.

But it is true and it gives a lie to all those, inside and outside of the Immigration Department who would have you believe getting permanent residence is a process that can be easily negotiated.

I have long believed INZ should put on all its guides, application forms and leaflets the same sort of warning that cigarette manufacturers must put on their little packets of death – something along the lines of ‘WARNING –Dealing with the Department of Immigration might lead to severe mental instability.'

The Consultant involved in this comedic exchange is our own level headed, mild mannered and generally calm Paul Janssen, a veteran of this industry, with many years experience and dare I add is a highly respected licensed immigration adviser with many years representing clients under his belt.

He is well used to dealing with Immigration Officers whose English is worse than the migrants upon whom they sit in judgement.

It's an exchange with the Immigration Department Call Centre here in NZ. The client's name has been changed so that if the real one reads it he doesn't think his residence visa is doomed owing to bureaucratic imbecility.

Here is the gist of how it went one sunny Auckland morning last week. Paul just wished he had recorded it so he could post it on You Tube or Facebook and watch it go viral!

INZ: Welcome to INZ how can you help me?

PJ: Sorry? I think you mean how can I help you?

INZ: Yes that's right…

PJ: Client number is 234577, client's name is John Smith. I am Paul from Immagine New Zealand, licensed advisor to the applicant.

INZ: Thank you. So what is your name?

PJ: Sorry?

INZ: Your name is John?

PJ: No, my name is Paul Janssen.

INZ: Oh okay sorry, thank you. So John is the licensed advisor.

PJ: No he is the client.

INZ: Oh okay thank you….( in cheery voice)….So how can I help you today?

PJ: Could you please give me an update on the Residence Visa application?

INZ: Certainly, what was he applying for?

PJ: Are you serious? He is applying for Residence, which is why I asked for an update on his Residence application.

INZ: Oh sorry, okay can I hold you while I look up his file.

PJ: I would prefer if you didn't hold me, but you can place me on hold.

INZ: [laughs] Oh sorry, yes I mean put you on hold.

PJ: No problem

5 minutes passes with Paul pushing a pencil with a dull lead into his brain through his left earhole – only because it is more fun and less painful.

INZ: Are you there Mr Smith?

PJ: It's Paul…

INZ: Oh sorry, yes. His Work Visa was approved in July. Is there anything else I can help you with.

PJ: Please……. God no…

Paul hangs up and looks for ledge on the exterior of our building to leap off.

And this dear reader is what we put up with day in and day out and which all our clients pay for through their (not insignificant) Government application fees. Given the average skilled migrant family of four now pays around NZ$3500 in Government Visa fees alone to share this little corner of planet Earth with us you might expect you would have people on the other end of the phone that could occasionally tell you something you didn't already know.

An extreme example?

I can tell you with hand on heart that I, the Southern Man, never use the Call Centre. I do this because what little remains of my sanity after 23 years of dealing with these people needs to be preserved.

I have about five minutes worth of sanity if forced to deal with the INZ call centre left in me.

On a more serious note it is nice to see that pass marks have come down in the latest pool draw and all those claiming at least 115 points including six years of work in an area of absolute skills shortage have been selected. This is down from 125 in the two previous pool draws and 135 in the three prior to them.

I will no longer read anything into these pass marks.

If I was going to speculate on what is going on I would say that we are four weeks away from a national election that the current Government will sleep walk to victory in (but let's not forget what I said about the World Cup final!).

They announced as expected this week significant reforms to the welfare system which will essentially make it harder for the 12% of New Zealand's working age population who sit around on their backsides to get off them and look for work.

To get the unemployment rate (currently sitting at just under 6.5%) down it would be politically foolish to signal allowing greater numbers of migrants into the country unless you had a political death wish (which these guys don't).

So better to undershoot your existing migrant numbers by some margin until the election is over.

It is obviously ridiculous to suggest that skilled migrants in any way compete with the unemployed. In my experience the unemployed are either unemployable, not interested, unmotivated or to be fair, sometimes unskilled (but don't start me on blowing a world class education opportunity that had been provided and not taken up).

But in politics perception is reality. Although every major study ever undertaken anywhere on this planet of ours clearly indicates that migrants do not ‘steal' jobs from locals that is the common perception. So the politicians aren't going to fight it.

So maybe what we are seeing now is a Government that has wanted migrant numbers lower (the net gain through migration in the 12 months ending September 2011 was only 770 people) than their public targets but now knows that increasing migrant numbers will not impact on them electorally.

Sorry if that sounds cynical but I cannot find any other explanation for the Government keeping pass marks significantly higher than they need to be to meet their quotas.

I am no longer willing to predict pass marks continuing to trend down but maybe, just maybe, the door is going to be opened a little more.

Watch this space.

Until next week...